Match prediction·EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification·Thursday 06 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Partizan Belgrade vs Tobol Kostanay

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Partizan BelgradestepTobol Kostanay
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Partizan Belgrade or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Partizan Belgrade Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Partizan Belgrade vs Tobol Kostanay — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Partizan Belgrade and Tobol Kostanay — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Partizan Belgrade 40% · draw 28% · Tobol Kostanay 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Partizan Belgrade 30 Tobol Kostanay
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.