FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Getafe 3–1 Partizan BelgradeMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Getafe or draw at 83%. Bawler had Getafe at 58%, the draw at 25% and Partizan Belgrade at 17%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
58%
Result
Draw
25%
Partizan Belgrade win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 0.8
Total 2.5
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Getafe or draw
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.