FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Getafe 3–1 Partizan BelgradeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Getafe at 58%, draw at 25%, Partizan Belgrade at 17%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Getafe.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
58%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Belgrade win
17%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.72 – 0.82
Total 2.54
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost