What we expect
In plain English
New Caledonia should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Solomon Islands, and Solomon Islands have not beaten them in their last three meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around five.
What would change the call
New Caledonia to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands?
Bawler's model rates this match: New Caledonia are favoured (90% win probability vs 3% for Solomon Islands, 7% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is New Caledonia 3-0 Solomon Islands (10.1% probability). Expected total goals: 4.50.
How does Bawler predict New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives New Caledonia 90%, the draw 7% and Solomon Islands 3%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands?
BTTS: No (50% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 3.79 and away expected goals 0.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in New Caledonia vs Solomon Islands?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 4.50. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).