How it finished
Netherlands and Germany drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Germany at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.4 goals; only 2 were scored. Netherlands had 22 shots (10 on target) to Germany's 10 (2), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 3.2 to 1.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected from each side before kickoff, next to how they had been doing.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
What we published
How likely we said the big moments were, before kickoff.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 78%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Netherlands vs Germany?
Netherlands and Germany drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Germany at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.4 goals; only 2 were scored. Netherlands had 22 shots (10 on target) to Germany's 10 (2), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 3.2 to 1.5.
What was the final score in Netherlands vs Germany?
Netherlands 1–1 Germany, played on 24 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Netherlands 37%, the draw 24% and Germany 39%.
What were the stats in Netherlands vs Germany?
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 3.2–1.5, Shots 22–10, Shots on target 10–2, Shots inside box 16–7, Big chances 4–2, Corners 12–1, Saves 1–9, Fouls 11–16, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 3–1.
Did both teams score in Netherlands vs Germany?
Yes — both Netherlands and Germany scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 67% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Netherlands vs Germany right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Germany or draw 63%, it finished Draw (24% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 67%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 86%, it finished Landed.