FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 09 October 2026
Lens 2–1 LyonMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 09 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lens or draw at 73%. Bawler had Lens at 49%, the draw at 24% and Lyon at 27%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lens win
49%
Result
Draw
24%
Lyon win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.4
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lens or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.