How it finished
Japan beat Uruguay 3–1. Bawler's model had Japan in front at 60% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.3 goals; the match produced 4. Japan had 8 shots (3 on target) to Uruguay's 19 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected from each side before kickoff, next to how they had been doing.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
What we published
How likely we said the big moments were, before kickoff.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 64%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Japan vs Uruguay?
Japan beat Uruguay 3–1. Bawler's model had Japan in front at 60% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.3 goals; the match produced 4. Japan had 8 shots (3 on target) to Uruguay's 19 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%.
What was the final score in Japan vs Uruguay?
Japan 3–1 Uruguay, played on 24 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Japan 60%, the draw 26% and Uruguay 14%.
What were the stats in Japan vs Uruguay?
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Shots 8–19, Shots on target 3–8, Corners 2–4, Fouls 0–0, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Japan vs Uruguay?
Yes — both Japan and Uruguay scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 39% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Japan vs Uruguay right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Japan to win 60%, it finished Japan won (60% called); Total goals — we said 2.3, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 39%, it finished Yes.