What we expect
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Japan vs Uruguay?
Bawler's model rates this match: Japan are favoured (60% win probability vs 14% for Uruguay, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Japan vs Uruguay?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Japan 1-0 Uruguay (16.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.28.
How does Bawler predict Japan vs Uruguay?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Japan 60%, the draw 26% and Uruguay 14%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Japan vs Uruguay?
BTTS: No (61% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.62 and away expected goals 0.66.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Japan vs Uruguay?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.28. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).