How it finished
Ukraine beat Hungary 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Hungary at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Ukraine 25%. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 1 was scored. Hungary had 17 shots (4 on target) to Ukraine's 10 (3), with 57% of the ball against 43%. On expected goals it was 1.8 to 1.3, so Hungary created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected from each side before kickoff, next to how they had been doing.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
What we published
How likely we said the big moments were, before kickoff.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Hungary vs Ukraine?
Ukraine beat Hungary 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Hungary at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Ukraine 25%. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 1 was scored. Hungary had 17 shots (4 on target) to Ukraine's 10 (3), with 57% of the ball against 43%. On expected goals it was 1.8 to 1.3, so Hungary created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Hungary vs Ukraine?
Hungary 0–1 Ukraine, played on 25 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Hungary 51%, the draw 24% and Ukraine 25%.
What were the stats in Hungary vs Ukraine?
Full-time: Possession 57%–43%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–1.3, Shots 17–10, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 12–6, Big chances 1–3, Corners 4–2, Saves 2–4, Fouls 12–19, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 4–6, Red cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in Hungary vs Ukraine?
No. It finished 0–1, so Hungary failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Hungary vs Ukraine right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Hungary or draw 75%, it finished Ukraine won (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Hungary to win 51%, it finished Missed.