What we expect
In plain English
Germany should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Greece. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Germany to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Greece vs Germany?
Bawler's model rates this match: Germany are favoured (77% win probability vs 8% for Greece, 15% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Greece vs Germany?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Greece 0-2 Germany (10.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.57.
How does Bawler predict Greece vs Germany?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Greece 8%, the draw 15% and Germany 77%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Greece vs Germany?
BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 0.83 and away expected goals 2.73.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Greece vs Germany?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.57. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).