What we expect
In plain English
Portugal are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Denmark, and they have won five of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Portugal or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Denmark vs Portugal?
Bawler's model rates this match: Portugal are favoured (50% win probability vs 26% for Denmark, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Denmark vs Portugal?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Denmark 1-1 Portugal (11.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.08.
How does Bawler predict Denmark vs Portugal?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Denmark 26%, the draw 24% and Portugal 50%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Denmark vs Portugal?
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.26 and away expected goals 1.83.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Denmark vs Portugal?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.08. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).