Czechia vs Croatia prediction — UEFA Nations League · Sat 26 Sept · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Sat 26 Sept · 19:45 UK
Czechia 33Draw 25Croatia 42
The call
67%
Croatia or draw
3.2
Goals expected
11d 20hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Over 1.5 goals82%
Croatia to score81%
Czechia to score77%
Under 3.5 goals61%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-0.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 5CZE 0 · D 3 · CRO 2

Head to head

Oct 2025Czechia 0–0 Croatia
Jun 2025Croatia 5–1 Czechia
Jun 2021Croatia 1–1 Czechia
Jun 2016Czechia 2–2 Croatia
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Common questions

Who will win Czechia vs Croatia?

Bawler's model rates this match: Croatia are favoured (42% win probability vs 33% for Czechia, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Czechia vs Croatia?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Czechia 1-1 Croatia (11.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.16.

How does Bawler predict Czechia vs Croatia?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Czechia 33%, the draw 25% and Croatia 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Czechia vs Croatia?

BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.47 and away expected goals 1.69.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Czechia vs Croatia?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.16. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).