Match prediction·EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification·Tuesday 11 Aug, 17:30 UTC

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Panathinaikos

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
CSKA 1948 SofiastepPanathinaikos
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

CSKA 1948 Sofia average 2.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Panathinaikos average 3.1 corners per game away from home this season (7 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
CSKA 1948 Sofia or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
CSKA 1948 Sofia Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Panathinaikos — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 5 August 2026, CSKA 1948 Sofia have won 0, Panathinaikos have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
5 August 2026Panathinaikos 11 CSKA 1948 SofiaEUROPE: Conference League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: CSKA 1948 Sofia 40% · draw 28% · Panathinaikos 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
CSKA 1948 Sofia 12 Panathinaikos
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.