FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Panathinaikos 2–2 FC Hradec KrálovéMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Panathinaikos at 54%, draw at 25%, FC Hradec Králové at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Panathinaikos to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Panathinaikos win
54%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Králové win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.70 – 0.94
Total 2.64
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won