FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
FC Hradec Králové 1–2 PanathinaikosMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Hradec Králové at 33%, draw at 28%, Panathinaikos at 40%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Panathinaikos.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Králové win
33%
Draw
28%
Panathinaikos win
40%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.26 – 1.41
Total 2.67
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% because both sides generate similar shot quality (1.26 vs 1.41 xG), creating a combined 2.67 expected total that favors a multi-goal affair."