FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Wednesday, 05 August 2026
Panathinaikos 1–1 CSKA 1948 SofiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 05 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Panathinaikos at 40%, draw at 28%, CSKA 1948 Sofia at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Panathinaikos to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Panathinaikos win
40%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Sofia win
32%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Panathinaikos or Draw
Pre-match: 68%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won