FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Columbus Crew 3–0 Colorado RapidsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Columbus Crew at 49%, draw at 25%, Colorado Rapids at 26%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Columbus Crew.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Crew win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Rapids win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.75 – 1.22
Total 2.97
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 80% forecast confidence, anchored by Columbus's 0.53 xG advantage and Diego Rossi's creative wing presence driving 24% of team chances."