Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Allan Saint-Maximin and Philip Zinckernagel both getting shots away.
Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire FC prediction
Our model only just leans towards Chicago Fire FC here: 39% to win, with Charlotte FC on 37% and the draw on 24%. Our predicted score is Charlotte FC 1–2 Chicago Fire FC: the most likely score if Chicago Fire FC win, at 8%. We expect 3.4 goals in total: 1.7 for Charlotte FC and 1.7 for Chicago Fire FC. Both sides are more likely than not to score (67%) and three or more goals is 66%.
Allan Saint-Maximin (Charlotte FC) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 3.5 shots if they start. Robert Lewandowski (Chicago Fire FC) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. Wilfried Zaha of Charlotte FC is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026. We expect Charlotte FC to have 13.6 shots (5.3 on target) and Chicago Fire FC 14.9 (5.4 on target), and corners at 5.0 to 4.7.
Charlotte FC come in with two wins, two draws and two defeats in their last six. Chicago Fire FC have two wins, one draw and three defeats over the same run. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Both Teams to Score, Over 23.5 Total Shots, Allan Saint-Maximin 1+ Shot and Philip Zinckernagel 1+ Shot. The chance all four land is 57% on our numbers, so the fair price is 8/11, or 1.75.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Charlotte FC · last 6
Chicago Fire FC · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Chicago Fire FC or draw is 63% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025–2026 and 2026, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: Chicago Fire FC are favoured (39% win probability vs 37% for Charlotte FC, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC?
Bawler's predicted score is Charlotte FC 1-2 Chicago Fire FC: the most likely score if Chicago Fire FC win, which is the likeliest result (39%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.1%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Charlotte FC 37%, the draw 24% and Chicago Fire FC 39%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 67% chance. That is based on Charlotte FC expecting 1.68 goals and Chicago Fire FC 1.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire FC?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 66%.
When are the Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire FC line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire FC?
Both Teams to Score (67%), Over 23.5 Total Shots (79%), Allan Saint-Maximin 1+ Shot (94%), Philip Zinckernagel 1+ Shot (91%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 57% chance, a fair price of 8/11 (1.75). 18+, please gamble responsibly.