What we expect
In plain English
Bosnia-Herzegovina should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Sweden. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Bosnia-Herzegovina or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Sweden?
Bawler's model rates this match: Bosnia-Herzegovina are favoured (55% win probability vs 23% for Sweden, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Sweden?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 Sweden (9.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.55.
How does Bawler predict Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Sweden?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Bosnia-Herzegovina 55%, the draw 22% and Sweden 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Sweden?
BTTS: Yes (66% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.18 and away expected goals 1.37.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Sweden?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.55. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).