Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 5 Oct · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 5 Oct · 19:45 UK
39Bosnia-Herzegovina win27Draw34Poland win
Full time
1–0

How it finished

Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Poland 1–0. Bosnia-Herzegovina had 9 shots (1 on target) to Poland's 18 (4), with 44% of the ball against 56%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.6, so Poland created the better chances and still lost the game.

Bosnia-HerzegovinaFull-time statsPoland
44%Possession56%
1.2Expected goals (xG)1.6
9Shots18
1Shots on target4
5Shots inside box10
1Big chances2
2Corners8
4Saves1
12Fouls7
4Offsides1
3Yellow cards3
We predicted
1–0
Likeliest score if Bosnia-Herzegovina win (9%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (13%)
Expected goals
1.4v1.4
2.8 in total
Both teams score
57%
Leans yes
3+ goals
53%
Leans likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Bosnia-HerzegovinaBosnia-HerzegovinaPolandPoland
1.4Goals1.4
Bosnia-HerzegovinaBosnia-HerzegovinaPolandPoland
0.6Goals0.6
Bosnia-HerzegovinaBosnia-HerzegovinaPolandPoland
0.8Goals0.8

Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

What we said the chances were

2 or more goals77%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score76%
Poland to score74%
Goal before half-time71%
3 goals or fewer69%

First half — what we expected

Bosnia-Herzegovina
47%
to score before half-time
Poland
45%
to score before half-time

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Head to head

Oct 2020Poland 3–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Sept 2020Bosnia and Herzegovina 1–2 Poland
Dec 2011Poland 1–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Dec 2010Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–2 Poland
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Bosnia-Herzegovina form →Poland form →

Common questions

Who won Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland?

Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Poland 1–0. Bosnia-Herzegovina had 9 shots (1 on target) to Poland's 18 (4), with 44% of the ball against 56%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.6, so Poland created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland?

Bosnia-Herzegovina 1–0 Poland, played on 05 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bosnia-Herzegovina 39%, the draw 27% and Poland 34%.

What were the stats in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland?

Full-time: Possession 44%–56%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.6, Shots 9–18, Shots on target 1–4, Shots inside box 5–10, Big chances 1–2, Corners 2–8, Saves 4–1, Fouls 12–7, Offsides 4–1, Yellow cards 3–3.

Did both teams score in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Poland?

No. It finished 1–0, so Poland failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.