FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Friday, 23 October 2026
VfB Stuttgart 2–3 Borussia MönchengladbachMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was VfB Stuttgart to win at 66%. Bawler had VfB Stuttgart at 66%, the draw at 19% and Borussia Mönchengladbach at 15%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
VfB Stuttgart win
66%
Draw
19%
Borussia Mönchengladbach win
15%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.1
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.5 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
VfB Stuttgart to win
Pre-match: 66%
Missed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 40%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Stuttgart's dominance in expected goals—1.31 ahead at 2.39 to 1.08—underpins the home win forecast at 66% probability."