What we expect
In plain English
Azerbaijan are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Lithuania. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Azerbaijan or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Bawler's model rates this match: Azerbaijan are favoured (49% win probability vs 30% for Lithuania, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Azerbaijan 2-1 Lithuania (8.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.93.
How does Bawler predict Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Azerbaijan 49%, the draw 21% and Lithuania 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
BTTS: Yes (73% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.20 and away expected goals 1.72.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.93. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).