BAWLER
← Tonight's board

Andorra vs Azerbaijan prediction — International friendlies · Mon 16 Nov · 18:00 UK

International friendlies · Mon 16 Nov · 18:00 UK
20Andorra win29Draw51Azerbaijan win
The call
80%
Azerbaijan or draw
Calls like this land 80% of the time
153 of 192 settledFull record →
14d 16hUntil lineups lock
Likeliest score
0–1
15% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
0.8v1.4
2.2 in total
Both teams score
41%
Leans no
3+ goals
38%
Unlikely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

AndorraAndorraAzerbaijanAzerbaijan
0.8Goals1.4
usually 0.5usually 0.8
9.3Shots8.8
usually 7.7usually 10.7
2.5On target3.3
usually 2.3usually 3.3
2.8Corners3.2
usually 2.3usually 3.3
AndorraAndorraAzerbaijanAzerbaijan
0.3Goals0.6
4.2Shots4.0
usually 4.0usually 5.2
1.1On target1.5
usually 1.0usually 1.8
1.3Corners1.5
usually 1.5usually 1.5
AndorraAndorraAzerbaijanAzerbaijan
0.4Goals0.8
5.0Shots4.8
1.4On target1.8
1.5Corners1.7

More chances

3 goals or fewer82%
Azerbaijan to score76%
2 or more goals65%
2 goals or fewer62%
Goal before half-time62%

Andorra · last 6

Lat Malta0–112 shots
Lat Lithuania0–309/30
Dv Gibraltar0–010 shots
Lv Malta1–213 shots
Lat Kosovo0–306/07
Wv Liechtenstein2–006/04

Azerbaijan · last 6

Wv Lithuania1–013 shots
Dv Liechtenstein0–025 shots
Dat Lithuania1–19 shots
Wv Tajikistan1–009/23
Wv San Marino2–106/09
Lv Malta0–206/05

Head to head

May 2016Azerbaijan 0–0 Andorra
May 2012Azerbaijan 0–0 Andorra

First half — what we expect

Andorra
29%
to score before half-time
Azerbaijan
47%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

AndorraAndorraAzerbaijanAzerbaijan
72%3+ shots70%
40%5+ shots37%
63%1+ shots on target73%
13%3+ shots on target20%
67%1+ corners72%
17%3+ corners21%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Azerbaijan or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Andorra lead 1–0 at half-time40%
Azerbaijan lead 1–0 at half-time98%
Goalless at half-time83%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

Build a combination on this match →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Andorra form →Azerbaijan form →

Common questions

Who will win Andorra vs Azerbaijan?

Bawler's model rates this match: Azerbaijan are favoured (51% win probability vs 20% for Andorra, 29% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Andorra vs Azerbaijan?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Andorra 0-1 Azerbaijan (15.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.2.

How does Bawler predict Andorra vs Azerbaijan?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Andorra 20%, the draw 29% and Azerbaijan 51%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Andorra vs Azerbaijan?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 41% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Andorra expecting 0.78 goals and Azerbaijan 1.42.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Andorra vs Azerbaijan?

Bawler's model expects 2.2 goals in total. It leans towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is only 38%.