FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Lithuania 3–0 AndorraMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Lithuania
3–0
Lithuania win
Andorra

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Lithuania to win at 67%. Bawler had Lithuania at 67%, the draw at 21% and Andorra at 12%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Lithuania win
67%
Result
Draw
21%
Andorra win
12%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 0.7
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Lithuania to win
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Lithuania's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.23 xG edge to make a Lithuania Win the 66% forecast, predicting they'll create substantially more quality chances than Andorra."

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