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Lithuania vs Liechtenstein prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 17:00 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 17:00 UK
80Lithuania win15Draw5Liechtenstein win
The call
80%
Lithuania to win
Calls like this land 80% of the time
153 of 192 settledFull record →
14d 15hUntil lineups lock
Likeliest score
2–0
16% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
2.4v0.5
2.8 in total
Both teams score
34%
No
3+ goals
54%
Leans likely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

LithuaniaLithuaniaLiechtensteinLiechtenstein
2.4Goals0.5
usually 1.2usually 0.0
17.5Shots3.5
usually 10.5usually 3.3
6.7On target1.3
usually 3.0usually 0.7
7.3Corners1.2
usually 3.7usually 0.8
LithuaniaLithuaniaLiechtensteinLiechtenstein
1.0Goals0.2
8.0Shots1.6
usually 4.3usually 1.2
3.0On target0.6
usually 1.2usually 0.3
3.4Corners0.5
usually 2.0usually 0.3
LithuaniaLithuaniaLiechtensteinLiechtenstein
1.3Goals0.3
9.5Shots1.9
3.7On target0.7
3.9Corners0.6

More chances

Lithuania to score91%
2 or more goals77%
Goal before half-time71%
3 goals or fewer68%

Lithuania · last 6

Lat Azerbaijan0–113 shots
Wv Andorra3–009/30
Dv Azerbaijan1–19 shots
Wat Liechtenstein2–016 shots
Lat Estonia0–106/09
Dv Latvia1–106/06

Liechtenstein · last 6

Lv Gibraltar0–210/05
Dat Azerbaijan0–05 shots
Lat Malta0–209/27
Lv Lithuania0–24 shots
Lv Cyprus0–206/07
Lat Andorra0–206/04

Head to head

Sept 2026Liechtenstein 0–2 Lithuania
Sept 2013Lithuania 2–0 Liechtenstein
Oct 2012Liechtenstein 0–2 Lithuania
Sept 2011Lithuania 0–0 Liechtenstein
Jun 2011Liechtenstein 2–0 Lithuania

First half — what we expect

Lithuania
65%
to score before half-time
Liechtenstein
19%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

LithuaniaLithuaniaLiechtensteinLiechtenstein
63%7+ shots<10%
40%9+ shots<10%
76%2+ shots on target13%
35%4+ shots on target<10%
81%2+ corners12%
43%4+ corners<10%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Lithuania to win is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Lithuania lead 1–0 at half-time92%
Liechtenstein lead 1–0 at half-time28%
Goalless at half-time61%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

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Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Lithuania form →Liechtenstein form →

Common questions

Who will win Lithuania vs Liechtenstein?

Bawler's model rates this match: Lithuania are favoured (80% win probability vs 5% for Liechtenstein, 15% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Lithuania vs Liechtenstein?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Lithuania 2-0 Liechtenstein (16.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.8.

How does Bawler predict Lithuania vs Liechtenstein?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Lithuania 80%, the draw 15% and Liechtenstein 5%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Lithuania vs Liechtenstein?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 34% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Lithuania expecting 2.37 goals and Liechtenstein 0.47.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Lithuania vs Liechtenstein?

Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.