Armenia vs Montenegro prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 28 Sept · 17:00 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 28 Sept · 17:00 UK
Armenia 33Draw 24Montenegro 43
The call
67%
Montenegro or draw
3.3
Goals expected
13d 17hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Over 1.5 goals84%
Montenegro to score83%
Armenia to score78%
Over 2.5 goals64%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-0.2 / match
Head-to-head, last 5ARM 2 · D 1 · MON 1

Head to head

Jun 2025Montenegro 2–2 Armenia
Mar 2022Armenia 1–0 Montenegro
Jun 2017Montenegro 4–1 Armenia
Nov 2016Armenia 3–2 Montenegro
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Common questions

Who will win Armenia vs Montenegro?

Bawler's model rates this match: Montenegro are favoured (43% win probability vs 33% for Armenia, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Armenia vs Montenegro?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Armenia 1-1 Montenegro (10.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.28.

How does Bawler predict Armenia vs Montenegro?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Armenia 33%, the draw 24% and Montenegro 43%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Armenia vs Montenegro?

BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.52 and away expected goals 1.75.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Armenia vs Montenegro?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.28. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Armenia
Before this
25 SeptHLatvia17:00
Montenegro
Before this
25 SeptHCyprus19:45
All fixtures & results →Armenia form →Montenegro form →