What we expect
In plain English
Argentina should win this one. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Bolivia, and Bolivia have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Argentina to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Argentina vs Bolivia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Argentina are favoured (96% win probability vs 0% for Bolivia, 4% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Argentina vs Bolivia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Argentina 3-0 Bolivia (17.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.97.
How does Bawler predict Argentina vs Bolivia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Argentina 96%, the draw 4% and Bolivia 0%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Argentina vs Bolivia?
BTTS: No (83% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 3.79 and away expected goals 0.19.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Argentina vs Bolivia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.97. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).