Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAl Ahli on top: Ivan Toney to test the keeper, and Flávio kept busy stopping them.
Al Ahli v Al Faisaly prediction
Our model gives Al Ahli a 76% chance of winning this Saudi Pro League game. A Al Faisaly win is 9% and a draw 15%. Our predicted score is Al Ahli 2–0 Al Faisaly (10%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. We expect 3.5 goals in total: 2.7 for Al Ahli and 0.8 for Al Faisaly. Both sides are more likely than not to score (53%) and three or more goals is 69%.
Al Ahli come in with four wins, no draws and two defeats in their last six. Al Faisaly have two wins, one draw and three defeats over the same run. Of their last five meetings on our records, Al Ahli have won one, Al Faisaly two, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended Al-Faisaly 2–2 Al Ahli, in Jan 2022.
We expect Al Ahli to have 18.4 shots (6.8 on target) and Al Faisaly 8.6 (2.8 on target), and corners at 6.6 to 2.8. That points to Al Ahli doing more of the attacking. Mohammed Al Shanqiti of Al Faisaly is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026/27. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Al Ahli or Draw, Flávio 1+ Foul Committed and Ivan Toney 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 56% on our numbers, so the fair price is 4/5, or 1.78.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Al Ahli · last 6
Al Faisaly · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Al Ahli to win is 76% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Saudi Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly?
Bawler's model rates this match: Al Ahli are favoured (76% win probability vs 9% for Al Faisaly, 15% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly?
Bawler's predicted score is Al Ahli 2-0 Al Faisaly: the most likely score if Al Ahli win, which is the likeliest result (76%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.5%. Expected total goals: 3.5.
How does Bawler predict Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Ahli 76%, the draw 15% and Al Faisaly 9%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Al Ahli expecting 2.70 goals and Al Faisaly 0.84.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly?
Bawler's model expects 3.5 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 69%.
When are the Al Ahli v Al Faisaly line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Al Ahli v Al Faisaly?
Al Ahli or Draw (91%), Flávio 1+ Foul Committed (74%), Ivan Toney 1+ Shot on Target (76%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 56% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.78). 18+, please gamble responsibly.