FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 31 October 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 1–0 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap · Saturday, 31 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax Amsterdam win
45%
Result
Draw
24%
AZ Alkmaar win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.