What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 75%. Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
In plain English
Vanuatu should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Fiji. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Vanuatu to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Vanuatu vs Fiji?
Bawler's model rates this match: Vanuatu are favoured (75% win probability vs 8% for Fiji, 17% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Vanuatu vs Fiji?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Vanuatu 2-0 Fiji (12.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.14.
How does Bawler predict Vanuatu vs Fiji?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Vanuatu 75%, the draw 17% and Fiji 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Vanuatu vs Fiji?
BTTS: No (54% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.44 and away expected goals 0.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Vanuatu vs Fiji?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.14. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).