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Bawler / Fiji vs New Caledonia / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Fiji 2–1 New CaledoniaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Fiji
2–1
Fiji win
New Caledonia
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Fiji at 39%, draw at 25%, New Caledonia at 36%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Fiji.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Fiji win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Caledonia win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.58 – 1.53
Total 3.12
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% as Fiji's 1.54 xG and New Caledonia's 1.48 xG combine for an attacking balance that edges toward a multi-goal affair."

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