Solomon Islands 3–3 VanuatuMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 24 September 2026

3–3

Draw

Vanuatu

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Solomon Islands at 21%, draw at 21%, Vanuatu at 57%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Vanuatu to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Islands win

21%

Draw

21%

Actual ✓

Vanuatu win

57%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.28 – 2.18

Total 3.47

Actual

3 – 3

Total 6 (+2.5 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 86%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 21%

✓ Won

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 86%, driven by Vanuatu's 0.91 xG advantage and dominant 57% win probability that should generate sustained attacking pressure."

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