We expected
1–1
11% — the single most likely resultExpected goals
1.6v1.6
3.1 in totalBoth teams score
63%
Yes3+ goals
61%
LikelyWhat we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
1.6Goals1.6
0.7Goals0.7
0.9Goals0.9
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
What we said the chances were
2 or more goals82%
United States to score80%
Mexico to score79%
Goal before half-time75%
3 goals or fewer62%
First half — what we expected
50%
to score before half-time
50%
to score before half-time
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who won United States vs Mexico?
United States beat Mexico 3–0.
What was the final score in United States vs Mexico?
United States 3–0 Mexico, played on 04 Oct 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with United States 38%, the draw 25% and Mexico 37%.
Did both teams score in United States vs Mexico?
No. It finished 3–0, so Mexico failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.