FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Udinese 0–3 LecceMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Udinese or draw at 78%. Bawler had Udinese at 53%, the draw at 25% and Lecce at 22%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Udinese win
53%
Draw
25%
Lecce win
22%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 3.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Udinese or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.