Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Conrad Harder and Mama Baldé both getting shots away.
Strasbourg v Brest prediction
Our model makes Strasbourg favourites for this Ligue 1 game, giving them a 44% chance of winning. Brest are 32% and the draw is 25%. Our predicted score is Strasbourg 2–1 Brest, the likeliest Strasbourg win score (9%). Our expected goals are 1.7 for Strasbourg and 1.4 for Brest, 3.2 in all. Both teams scoring is 63% and three or more goals is 61%.
Conrad Harder is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.9 shots and 1.2 on target for Strasbourg, if they start. For cards, Kamory Doumbia (Brest) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. Strasbourg come in with one win, no draws and five defeats in their last six. Brest have two wins, one draw and three defeats over the same run.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Strasbourg have won one, Brest three, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Brest 1–2 Strasbourg, in May 2026. On shots, our forecast is 16.2 for Strasbourg and 11.4 for Brest, with 5.6 and 3.2 on target, and corners at 6.4 to 3.7. So we expect Strasbourg to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick for this game is Both Teams to Score, Over 22.5 Total Shots, Conrad Harder 1+ Shot and Mama Baldé 1+ Shot. Our model gives all four landing together a 53% chance, which makes the fair price 10/11 (1.89).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Strasbourg · last 6
Brest · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Strasbourg or draw is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Strasbourg vs Brest?
Bawler's model rates this match: Strasbourg are favoured (44% win probability vs 32% for Brest, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Strasbourg vs Brest?
Bawler's predicted score is Strasbourg 2-1 Brest: the most likely score if Strasbourg win, which is the likeliest result (44%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.9%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Strasbourg vs Brest?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Strasbourg 44%, the draw 25% and Brest 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Brest?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 63% chance. That is based on Strasbourg expecting 1.72 goals and Brest 1.44.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Strasbourg vs Brest?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Strasbourg v Brest line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Strasbourg v Brest?
Both Teams to Score (63%), Over 22.5 Total Shots (80%), Conrad Harder 1+ Shot (95%), Mama Baldé 1+ Shot (87%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 53% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.89). 18+, please gamble responsibly.