Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Stoke City v Millwall prediction
Millwall are favourites on our numbers: 40% to win, against 33% for Stoke City and 27% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Stoke City 0–1 Millwall, the most likely Millwall win (9%). Our expected goals are 1.3 for Stoke City and 1.5 for Millwall, 2.8 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (57%) and three or more goals is 53%.
Stoke City come in with four wins, one draw and one defeat in their last six. Millwall have one win, one draw and four defeats over the same run. Of their last five meetings on our records, Stoke City have won none, Millwall three, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended Stoke City 1–3 Millwall, in Apr 2026.
We expect Stoke City to have 13.2 shots (3.8 on target) and Millwall 13.1 (3.5 on target), and corners at 5.9 to 4.5. Of the players, Róbert Bozeník (Stoke City) tops both our lists, with 2.8 shots and 0.9 on target expected if they start. Maksym Talovierov of Stoke City is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Over 21.5 Total Shots, Over 7.5 Total Corners and Over 4.5 Total Shots on Target. The chance all three land is 62% on our numbers, so the fair price is 8/13, or 1.62.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Stoke City · last 6
Millwall · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Millwall or draw is 67% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Stoke City vs Millwall?
Bawler's model rates this match: Millwall are favoured (40% win probability vs 33% for Stoke City, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Millwall?
Bawler's predicted score is Stoke City 0-1 Millwall: the most likely score if Millwall win, which is the likeliest result (40%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.8%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Stoke City vs Millwall?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Stoke City 33%, the draw 27% and Millwall 40%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs Millwall?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Stoke City expecting 1.32 goals and Millwall 1.49.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Stoke City vs Millwall?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 53%.
When are the Stoke City v Millwall line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Stoke City v Millwall?
Over 21.5 Total Shots (79%), Over 7.5 Total Corners (78%), Over 4.5 Total Shots on Target (84%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 62% chance, a fair price of 8/13 (1.62). 18+, please gamble responsibly.