FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 31 August 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 3–3 FC DallasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 31 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 45%, draw at 25%, FC Dallas at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was St. Louis CITY SC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
45%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Dallas win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.67 – 1.29
Total 2.96
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✓ Won