Match prediction·EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification·Thursday 13 Aug, 18:00 UTC

St. Gallen vs Sheriff Tiraspol

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
St. GallenstepSheriff Tiraspol
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

St. Gallen average 7.7 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Sheriff Tiraspol average 10.7 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
St. Gallen or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
St. Gallen Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

St. Gallen vs Sheriff Tiraspol — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 August 2026, St. Gallen have won 1, Sheriff Tiraspol have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 August 2026Sheriff Tiraspol 13 St. GallenEUROPE: Conference League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: St. Gallen 40% · draw 28% · Sheriff Tiraspol 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.