FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Nordsjælland 1–0 St. GallenMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Nordsjælland or draw at 71%. Bawler had FC Nordsjælland at 48%, the draw at 23% and St. Gallen at 29%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Nordsjælland win
48%
Result
Draw
23%
St. Gallen win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.5
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.4 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Missed
Medium confidence
FC Nordsjælland or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.