FT · England: Championship · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Southampton 1–0 PortsmouthMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Southampton or draw at 81%. Bawler had Southampton at 57%, the draw at 23% and Portsmouth at 19%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Southampton win
57%
Result
Draw
23%
Portsmouth win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.