FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 25 October 2026
SC Freiburg 1–3 Bayern MunichMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayern Munich or draw at 78%. Bawler had SC Freiburg at 22%, the draw at 21% and Bayern Munich at 56%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
SC Freiburg win
22%
Draw
21%
Bayern Munich win
56%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 2.2
Total 3.6
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 2.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Outside shot
SC Freiburg to win
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 87%, grounded in Bayern's 0.87 xG advantage and Freiburg's Grifo accounting for 22% of team creation on home turf."