Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelSamsunspor on top, and Mohamed Bayo getting plenty of shots away.
Samsunspor v Genclerbirligi prediction
Samsunspor are favourites on our numbers: 54% to win, against 22% for Genclerbirligi and 24% for a draw. Our predicted score is Samsunspor 1–0 Genclerbirligi, the likeliest Samsunspor win score (10%). Our expected goals are 1.8 for Samsunspor and 1.1 for Genclerbirligi, 2.9 in all. Both teams scoring is 56% and three or more goals is 56%.
On shots, our forecast is 18.2 for Samsunspor and 9.5 for Genclerbirligi, with 6.4 and 2.8 on target, and corners at 6.2 to 3.2. So we expect Samsunspor to do more of the shooting. Mohamed Bayo is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.8 shots and 1.1 on target for Samsunspor, if they start. For cards, Ousmane Diabate (Genclerbirligi) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Samsunspor have won three, Genclerbirligi none, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished Gençlerbirliği 1–1 Samsunspor, in Jan 2026. On form, Samsunspor have one win, no draws and five defeats from their last six games, and Genclerbirligi have one win, one draw and four defeats. Bawler's pick for this game is Samsunspor or Draw, Samsunspor Over 13.5 Shots and Mohamed Bayo 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 49% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (2.04).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Samsunspor · last 6
Genclerbirligi · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Samsunspor or draw is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Süper Lig table →Common questions
Who will win Samsunspor vs Genclerbirligi?
Bawler's model rates this match: Samsunspor are favoured (54% win probability vs 22% for Genclerbirligi, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Samsunspor vs Genclerbirligi?
Bawler's predicted score is Samsunspor 1-0 Genclerbirligi: the most likely score if Samsunspor win, which is the likeliest result (54%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Samsunspor vs Genclerbirligi?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Samsunspor 54%, the draw 24% and Genclerbirligi 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Genclerbirligi?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 56% chance. That is based on Samsunspor expecting 1.83 goals and Genclerbirligi 1.08.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Samsunspor vs Genclerbirligi?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.
When are the Samsunspor v Genclerbirligi line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Samsunspor v Genclerbirligi?
Samsunspor or Draw (78%), Samsunspor Over 13.5 Shots (80%), Mohamed Bayo 2+ Shots (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 49% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.04). 18+, please gamble responsibly.