Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelGalatasaray on top: Victor Osimhen to test the keeper, and Tanguy Coulibaly kept busy stopping them.
Galatasaray v Samsunspor prediction
Galatasaray go into this Süper Lig match as strong favourites on our numbers: 77% to win, against 8% for Samsunspor and 15% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Galatasaray 2–0 Samsunspor, at 10%. We expect 3.6 goals in total: 2.7 for Galatasaray and 0.8 for Samsunspor. Both teams scoring is 53% and three or more goals is 69%.
Victor Osimhen is the player we expect to shoot most: 6.4 shots and 1.9 on target for Galatasaray, if they start. For cards, Tanguy Coulibaly (Samsunspor) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On form, Galatasaray have five wins, no draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Samsunspor have one win, no draws and five defeats.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Galatasaray have won four, Samsunspor one. When they last met, it finished Samsunspor 4–1 Galatasaray, in May 2026. On shots, our forecast is 23.4 for Galatasaray and 9.5 for Samsunspor, with 6.0 and 3.3 on target, and corners at 7.8 to 3.3. So we expect Galatasaray to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick for this game is Galatasaray or Draw, Tanguy Coulibaly 1+ Foul Committed and Victor Osimhen 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 62% chance, which makes the fair price 8/13 (1.61).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Galatasaray · last 6
Samsunspor · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Galatasaray to win is 77% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Süper Lig table →Common questions
Who will win Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
Bawler's model rates this match: Galatasaray are favoured (77% win probability vs 8% for Samsunspor, 15% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
Bawler's predicted score is Galatasaray 2-0 Samsunspor: the most likely score if Galatasaray win, which is the likeliest result (77%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.5%. Expected total goals: 3.6.
How does Bawler predict Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Galatasaray 77%, the draw 15% and Samsunspor 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. That is based on Galatasaray expecting 2.75 goals and Samsunspor 0.83.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Galatasaray vs Samsunspor?
Bawler's model expects 3.6 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 69%.
When are the Galatasaray v Samsunspor line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Galatasaray v Samsunspor?
Galatasaray or Draw (92%), Tanguy Coulibaly 1+ Foul Committed (76%), Victor Osimhen 1+ Shot on Target (81%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 62% chance, a fair price of 8/13 (1.61). 18+, please gamble responsibly.