FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Rangers 1–0 MotherwellMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Rangers at 54%, draw at 24%, Motherwell at 22%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Rangers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rangers win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Motherwell win
22%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.89 – 1.15
Total 3.04
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals commands 81% confidence as Rangers' 0.74 xG advantage projects a multi-goal frame in this Scottish Premiership fixture."