FT · England: EFL Cup · Saturday, 08 August 2026
Queens Park Rangers 1–1 MillwallMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 08 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Queens Park Rangers at 47%, draw at 31%, Millwall at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Queens Park Rangers to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rangers win
47%
Draw
31%
Actual ✓
Millwall win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.06
Total 2.67
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 74% probability because QPR's 0.54 expected-goals edge and combined 2.67 xG total point to a genuinely open match that rarely stays below two goals."