FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
Portland Timbers 2–1 Seattle Sounders FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Portland Timbers at 39%, draw at 30%, Seattle Sounders FC at 31%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Portland Timbers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Timbers win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
FC win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.59 – 1.40
Total 2.99
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 77% probability sits comfortably on a combined 2.99 xG and Portland's 1.59 shot creation at home, where both sides project to trade chances consistently."