Bawler's model rates this match: Poland are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for Bosnia-Herzegovina, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Poland 1-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.04.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Poland 46%, the draw 25% and Bosnia-Herzegovina 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.72 and away expected goals 1.32.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.04. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).