Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina prediction — UEFA Nations League · Fri 25 Sept · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Fri 25 Sept · 19:45 UK
Poland 46Draw 25Bosnia-Herzegovina 29
The call
71%
Poland or draw
3.0
Goals expected
14d 00hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Poland to score82%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score73%
Under 3.5 goals64%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.4 / match
Head-to-head, last 5POL 3 · D 1 · BOS 0

Head to head

Oct 2020Poland 3–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Sept 2020Bosnia and Herzegovina 1–2 Poland
Dec 2011Poland 1–0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
Dec 2010Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–2 Poland
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Common questions

Who will win Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Bawler's model rates this match: Poland are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for Bosnia-Herzegovina, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Poland 1-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.04.

How does Bawler predict Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Poland 46%, the draw 25% and Bosnia-Herzegovina 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.72 and away expected goals 1.32.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Poland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.04. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).