FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Le MansMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain to win at 80%. Bawler had Paris Saint-Germain at 80%, the draw at 13% and Le Mans at 7%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Paris Saint-Germain win
80%
Result
Draw
13%
Le Mans win
7%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.9 – 0.8
Total 3.8
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.1 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.