FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 04 November 2026
FC Porto 4–1 NapoliMatch recap · Wednesday, 04 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
FC Porto or Draw✓
FC Porto Over 9.5 Shots✓
Borja Sainz 2+ Shots✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Porto win
52%
Result
Draw
24%
Napoli win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.