FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Morocco 1–1 MaliMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Morocco
1–1
Draw
Mali

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Morocco to win at 73%. Bawler had Morocco at 73%, the draw at 20% and Mali at 7%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Morocco win
73%
Draw
20%
Result
Mali win
7%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 0.4
Total 2.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 1.0
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.3.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Morocco to win
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Morocco's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 72%, driven by a 1.46 xG advantage that reflects their superior attacking threat led by Hakimi's creative influence."

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