What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 64%. Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
In plain English
Morocco are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won four of their last six, and the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Mali. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Morocco to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Morocco vs Mali?
Bawler's model rates this match: Morocco are favoured (73% win probability vs 7% for Mali, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Morocco vs Mali?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Morocco 1-0 Mali (18.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.30.
How does Bawler predict Morocco vs Mali?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Morocco 73%, the draw 21% and Mali 7%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Morocco vs Mali?
BTTS: No (71% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.88 and away expected goals 0.41.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Morocco vs Mali?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.30. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).