FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint-GermainMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester City or draw at 75%. Bawler had Manchester City at 52%, the draw at 24% and Paris Saint-Germain at 25%. The match finished 2–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester City win
52%
Draw
24%
Paris Saint-Germain win
25%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Manchester City or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.